Summary
In this lesson, students explore the concepts of statistics and probability in the context of basketball. Students play basketball in the classroom, gather data about shots made and missed, and calculate the probability of a successful shot. Students then step into the role of an NBA statistician and calculate the probability of 2-point and 3-point shots using real-world scores from their chosen team. At the end of the lesson, students summarize their understanding in a letter to their team's coach.
Essential Question(s)
How can probability inform coaching staff decision-making for sporting events?
Snapshot
Engage
Students discuss what they know about basketball in a Collective Brain Dump and watch a video of NBA highlights.
Explore
Students shoot baskets using “basketballs” to collect data then determine their own probability of making a successful shot.
Explain
Students participate in a class discussion in which they discuss how they analyzed their data, how their data can be used, and which form of probability is most useful in basketball.
Extend
Students take on the role of an NBA statistician and use data from real NBA teams to determine a team’s probability of making 2-point and 3-point shots.
Evaluate
Students summarize their findings in a letter to the coach of their chosen team and argue which type of shots the team should practice.
Materials
Lesson Slides (attached)
Shot Statistics handout (attached; one per pair of students)
A Statistician's First Day handout (attached; one per student; print two-sided)
Classroom "basketballs" (for example: crumpled paper, foam balls, etc.; one per pair of students)
Classroom "basketball hoop" (for example: trashcan, bowl, etc.; one per pair of students)
Laptop or tablet (one per student)
Notebook paper (one per student)
Engage
Use the attached Lesson Slides to guide the lesson. Begin the lesson by displaying slide 2 to introduce the title of the lesson. Transition through slides 3–4 and introduce the essential question and learning objective.
Pass out one sheet of notebook paper to each student and display slide 5. Have students participate in a Collective Brain Dump by writing down everything they know about basketball. Encourage students to consider things like rules, teams, players, equipment involved, etc. Remind students that, in this activity, they should focus more on writing down ideas and less on proper grammar or sentence structure.
Start the 4-minute timer on the slide and provide students time to brainstorm. Invite volunteers to share out what they wrote. Consider using a whiteboard space to record student responses from their brain dumps.
Show slide 6 and play the video NBA’s Best Ball Fakes 2018-2019.
Explore
Display slide 7 and introduce the instructions for the activity. Sort students into pairs and give each pair one classroom “basketball” and one copy of the Shot Statistics handout.
Direct students’ attention to the shooting line(s) and tell them that one partner from each pair will take turns shooting their “basketball” from the line. The first player should shoot the basketball ten times towards the basket while the second player marks which shots were successful or missed on the Shot Statistics handout. After the first player tosses the ball ten times, have the partners switch roles. The second player should now shoot the ball ten times while the first player records the missed and successful shots.
Allow enough time for each student to have a turn shooting the ball. Have pairs then work together to find the statistical probability of each player making a successful shot. Tell students to record the probability for both players at the bottom of their handouts in decimal, reduced fraction, and percentage forms.
Explain
Move to slide 8. Ask for pairs to share their findings. Ask the following guiding questions on the slide:
How did you calculate the probability?
Who has the highest chance of making a successful shot?
Which form (decimal, fraction, or percentage) would be the most helpful to a basketball coach? Why?
Extend
Display slide 9 and pass out one copy of the A Statistician’s First Day handout to each student. Explain to students that they are about to begin their first day as an official NBA statistician.
Have students navigate to the Basketball Reference website using either the link or QR code on the slide or handout. Instruct pairs to scroll down to the “Conference Standings” chart and choose the team they’d like to work for. When students select their team’s name, they’ll be able to see a page that offers additional information about the team. Have them select the “Schedule & Results” tab then scroll down to the “Regular Season” table. Tell students to use the four most recent games played to complete the first table on their handouts.
Ensure that when students select the date of a team’s most recent game, they then navigate to their team’s game, as when a date is selected it will display all teams that played on that date. Students must then find their team’s city and select “Shot Chart” within the box. Students may then scroll down and navigate the shot chart to find data for 2-point shots attempted (2PA), 2-point shots successfully made (2P), 3-point shots attempted (3PA), and 3-point shots successfully made (3P). Have students record these numbers on their handouts under each of the four games labeled G1, G2, G3, and G4. Have students also record the date of each game.
Have students use the data they collected to calculate the probability of both types of shots for each game in simplified fraction and percentage forms. Have them then find the probability of a successful shot across all games for both 2-point and 3-point shots.
Evaluate
Show slide 11. Have students now use the data they collected and analyzed to write a letter to their team’s coach on the back of their A Statistician’s First Day handouts. Tell students that they must persuade the coach to practice either 2-point or 3-point shots based on their calculations.
Remind students to be specific with their data and include numbers from their calculations. You may consider having students turn in their handouts to serve as an assessment of the lesson.
Resources
K20 Center. (n.d.). Collective brain dump. Strategies. https://learn.k20center.ou.edu/strategy/111
K20 Center. (2021, September 21). K20 Center 4 minute timer. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpCsfuvzQeY
K20 Center. (2023, April 12). K20 ICAP - Sports Statistician - Real-Time Stats in Sports [Video]. YouTube.
NBA. (2019, July 29). NBA’s best ball fakes [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FdIRPiL5vA
Scores. (n.d.). Basketball Reference. https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/